02 July 2013

Higuain to Arsenal bet: £14 wins you one stinkin' pound.

In a strong signal that Arsenal is closer than ever to landing the signature of Gonzalo Higuain, betvictor has lowered its odds on the event from 1/8 to 1/14. A quick explanation: the fractional odds show us the payout on the right and the wager on the left. In this situation, then, if I bet £14 on Higuain coming to Arsenal, I'll win a single pound (plus my original wager) for a whopping total of £15. There are slower ways to fund your retirement, to be sure, but when we last checked the situation on 27 June, the odds were 1/8in other words, in just five days, the odds have nearly halved, indicating that a signature could be imminent. Could it be as early as this week? In the still-running poll, sadly, 44% of us were too optimistic in suggesting that Higuain would sign by 28 June. With the transfer window now officially open, will the 33% who predicted a signing by 5 July win the day? I'm sure all of this are looking for any and every morsel of evidence to confirm it: Wilshere's following Higuain on twitter. Arsene's set to make a "final push." And on and on.

When will Higuain sign?

I'm not much of a betting manI'm too much of a coward to take the plunge. However, the betting parlors are taking the collective wisdom (such as it is) of anyone interested enough to put their money where their mouths are. Paddy Power and the rest won't stay in business very long if they can't accurately assess odds, which is why I'll look to them to figure out where things stand rather than reading headlines. To believe them, we're about to sign Higuain, Rooney, Fellaini, and now Bayern's Mario Gomez. It's a dreamy world, full of rainbows and unicorns and dragons that poop jelly-beans.In other words,  let's get back to reality.

With the signature of Yaya Sanogo, there's no harm in hoping that the lid is now off the transfer-kitty. Transfermrkt, who rate the probability of transfers, have left Higuain's move at 75% likely, unchanged from a week ago. For context, Sanogo is still listed at 93% likely to sign while also being listed as in the squad since 1 July, so there's a curve of seven points there.  Similarly, the likelihood of Cesar signing have grown from 50% to 57%, and skybet have lowered odds from 1/3 to 1/4. Despite rumors of Barcelona's interest, it seems that we continue to have the inside-track and hopefully enough of a head start to land the man.

It's going to be an antsy couple of days as we hope to hear some official announcements about Higuain and Cesar. In the meantime, it seems we can distract ourselves with variations on Wham!'s "Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go":
Score a goal, Yaya Sanogo,
You're the first signing of the transfer window.
Score some goals, Yaya Sanogo,
You're sure to be a superstar bye and bye.
Score again, Yaya Sanogo,
Caz can't always do it solo.
Score more goals, Yaya Sanogo;
I don't wanna miss when you hit that high!
Good times.

Last word: don't forget to vote in the 2013 YAMAS Best Arsenal blogs balloting!